$4.6 billion to shift a paradigm...$44.6 billion to stay an also-ran

Dan Frommer just posted a really thought provoking piece on how Micro-Hoo could be a really solid win for Mobile. I don't disagree that this deal could have a profound impact, but I'm taking a different approach as to why:

While some have said Google wasn't involved in the 700 MHz spectrum to win it, I'm going to go ahead and disagree. First and foremost, we know that the company pledged $4.6 billion to the auction (despite the fact that many on Wall Street don't think this is all that great an idea). The actual winning bid (although not yet finalized) is said to be $4.7 billion, which I think is in the realm of possibility of Google winning.

So, let's call it $40 billion less than Microsoft is bidding for Yahoo (at these rates, what's a tenth of a billion count for anyway?)

All of that said, there's too many coincidences happening out there that make me think Google wins the mobility battle (and the 700 MHz auction).

1. Sprint and Clearwire kissed and made up
2. Google is said to be helping these companies along
3. While I openly admit to being a Mac Fanboy, if there's one thing that can hurt the iPhone.... it's AT&T. A gPhone running on.... oh, I don't know... a 4G wimax network might be awfully tough to pass up

I thought all along the Apple and Google would go in on the spectrum offer together, with the iPhone and even the Macbook Air being perfect fits for a 4G network. Besides the crossover on the boards, etc... there's also on distinct that made it make sense to me: Both companies have Microsoft in their sites.

Having Sprint/Clearwire in the mix makes this a little more difficult, but I'm still not convinced the theory doesn't at least hold some water (don't forget.. wimax evangelist Intel fairly recently began working with Apple, and Intel also has some stake in the Sprint/Clearwire re-marriage).

So, here's what I am getting at:

In one corner, you have the potential of Micro-Hoo to make mobility more easy to use and building ad networks. I'm also going to throw the ISP's into the mix here. Don't forget for a second that Microsoft is trying to turn Xbox Live into an iTunes/AppleTV competitor, and they will need to distribute it.

In the other, you have Google's spending power and vision, Sprint/Clearwire's budding 4G network, and Steve Job's ability to build entire ecosystems (hardware and software that work flawlessly together), all of whom pose a passion for mobility.

Should any of this be correct, I'll be siding with the latter.